In an update of its report on the « Macroeconomic performance and prospects of Africa 2023 », the institution now expects growth of 3.4 % this year and 3.8 % in 2024 for the continent as a whole, against previous estimates of 4 % and 4.3 % dating from last May.
« These slightly lower forecasts than previous ones are explained by the persistent and long-term effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions and conflicts, climate shocks, a global economic slowdown, as well as the limited budgetary room for maneuver available to African governments to adequately respond to shocks and support the gains of economic recovery after the health crisis », said the bank.
The chief economist and vice-president of the AfDB Group, Kevin Urama, was particularly concerned in this context about the negative impacts of the persistence of high inflation and the depreciation of currencies on the performance of African economies.
« Persistent inflationary pressures threaten to wipe out all the macroeconomic gains made since the mitigation of pandemic risks, while the continued depreciation of national currencies in many countries has exacerbated the cost of debt servicing », he stressed.
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In all, 33 countries and all regions of the continent are affected by the downward revision of growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024. As for Central Africa, growth is expected to increase from 5.3 % in 2022 to 4.1 % in 2023, a rate 0.8 percentage points lower than the projections of May. The decline between 2022 and 2023 reflects the persistent security and political challenges, particularly in Chad, Central Africa Republic and the DR Congo.
However, the report indicates that the revised projected real GDP growth for Africa will remain above the global average and that of all other regions, with the exception of Asia. According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook published in October 2023, global growth is expected to reach an average of 3.0 % in 2023, while that of Asia would amount to 4.6 %.